So, even though you didn’t clearly contest any of the premises nor the reasoning, let’s assume that the second paragraph is a rebuttal to premises (1:) and/or (2:) of the grandparent.
An AGI is not something a bunch of nerds can cook up in their basement in their spare time.
I contest this premise, and I’m really wondering where you’d think that up. As technology progresses, we’ve noticed that it gets easier and easier to do stuff that was previously only possible for massive organizations.
Examples include, well, anything involving computers (since computers were first something only massive organizations could possess, until a bunch of nerds cooked it up in their basement), creating new software in the first place, creating videogames, publishing original research, running automated data-miners, creating new hardware gadgets, creating software that emulates hardware devices, validating formal mathematical proofs, running computer simulations...
...I could probably go on for a while, but I’m being warned that this should be enough to point at the right empirical cluster. Basically, we have lots of evidence saying that new-stuff-that-can-only-be-done-by-large-organizations can eventually be done by smaller groups, and not much that sets AGI apart as a particular exception other than the current perceived level of difficulty.
So, even though you didn’t clearly contest any of the premises nor the reasoning, let’s assume that the second paragraph is a rebuttal to premises (1:) and/or (2:) of the grandparent.
I contest this premise, and I’m really wondering where you’d think that up. As technology progresses, we’ve noticed that it gets easier and easier to do stuff that was previously only possible for massive organizations.
Examples include, well, anything involving computers (since computers were first something only massive organizations could possess, until a bunch of nerds cooked it up in their basement), creating new software in the first place, creating videogames, publishing original research, running automated data-miners, creating new hardware gadgets, creating software that emulates hardware devices, validating formal mathematical proofs, running computer simulations...
...I could probably go on for a while, but I’m being warned that this should be enough to point at the right empirical cluster. Basically, we have lots of evidence saying that new-stuff-that-can-only-be-done-by-large-organizations can eventually be done by smaller groups, and not much that sets AGI apart as a particular exception other than the current perceived level of difficulty.